Price Action and Technical Structure
SPY closed the week of September 21–25 at $772.04, up 1.2% as the S&P 500 notched its best weekly gain in three, closing at 7,743.41. The rally was driven less by any single catalyst than by a broad de-escalation: oil prices eased off their Iran-war highs on renewed U.S.–Iran truce talks, and Friday’s session added another 0.5% as easing crude halted the two-week Treasury-yield surge, at least temporarily. The index is now just 0.7% below the $777.88 closing high set August 13.
The technical structure has firmed up alongside the price recovery. Momentum has turned constructive again after cooling sharply two weeks ago: SPY’s 14-day RSI has climbed back into the upper-50s, and moving-average signals across most timeframes have flipped back to Buy. MACD is the one holdout — it crossed bearish during the mid-September Iran-war selloff and, while narrowing, has not yet fully confirmed a bullish cross, meaning the rally is still running a bit ahead of trend-following signals. Structurally, SPY remains comfortably above both its 50-day SMA (now around $764) and 200-day SMA (now around $726), and the golden cross that has been intact since spring continues to hold.
Chartmill’s technical model now rates SPY 7 out of 10, calling both the medium- and short-term setup positive, and flags SPY as trading near its 52-week high with reduced volatility — a decent setup for continuation, in its view. The resistance to watch sits in the $772–$778 zone, formed by a cluster of trendlines and moving averages that lines up almost exactly with the all-time high; support below sits near $760, reinforced by the rising 50-day SMA just under it.
| Metric | Value | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Price | $772.04 | S&P 500 +1.2% wk |
| All-Time High (Aug 13) | $777.88 | −0.7% from here |
| RSI (14-day) | ~58 | Neutral-to-bullish, recovering |
| MACD | Bearish, narrowing | Lagging the price recovery |
| 50-Day SMA | ~$764 | Price above ✓ |
| 200-Day SMA | ~$726 | Price above ✓ |
| MA Signal | 50-day > 200-day | Golden cross intact |
| Support 1 | ~$764 | 50-day SMA |
| Support 2 | ~$726 | 200-day SMA |
| Resistance | $777.88 | All-time high (Aug 13) |
Macro Snapshot
The macro backdrop is dominated by the bond market, not the stock market. The 10-year Treasury yield touched 5% for the first time since 2023 on September 8 and has since climbed further, holding near 5.17% at Friday’s close — a level last seen in June 2007. The global bond selloff reflects a mix of persistent inflation, elevated energy prices, expectations for a still-hiking Fed, and mounting unease about government debt loads. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate has followed, jumping to roughly 7.45%, its highest in more than two years.
On the data that's actually in hand: Q2 GDP is unrevised at 1.5% in the BEA’s second estimate, a clear step down from Q1’s 2.1%. July core PCE — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, and still the most recent official reading — held at 3.3% year-over-year, with headline PCE at 3.7%; both remain far above the 2% target. August payrolls surprised sharply to the upside at +162,000 (versus a consensus near 53,000), with unemployment steady at 4.1%, easing the case for the Fed to stay dovish. That rebound is exactly why the September 16 FOMC decision landed the way it did: the Fed hiked 25 basis points to 3.75%–4.00%, its first hike since 2023, and the dot plot showed 16 of 18 officials expecting at least one more hike this year.
| GDP | Core PCE | Headline PCE | Unemployment | Fed Rate | Key Factor |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5% (Q2, 2nd est.) | 3.3% (Jul) | 3.7% (Jul) | 4.1% (Aug) | 3.75%–4.00% | 10-year yield at a 19-year high (5.17%) with the Fed still signaling more hikes |
Oil is the other swing factor, and this week it swung in the market’s favor. Brent crude, which topped $100/bbl in early September on Iran-war strikes near the Strait of Hormuz, slid nearly $6 late in the week to below $100 on hopes that U.S.–Iran talks could reopen the strait; WTI still traded above $93 with vessel traffic through Hormuz far from normal. On the fiscal side, prediction markets now assign only a 1–2% probability to a government shutdown at the October 1 funding deadline, a sharp de-risking from the record 60-plus-day shutdown that began in February.
VIX — The Fear Gauge
VIX closed the week at 14.87, down 5.1% on Friday alone and back into the Complacency band for the first time since before the Iran-war scare. That is a meaningful round trip: VIX spiked to a 28-session high in the $18–19 range during the worst of the mid-September oil shock, and has since ground steadily lower as the geopolitical premium unwound. The one wrinkle: a sub-15 VIX heading into a week that stacks August PCE, two megacap earnings reports, and the September jobs report is unusually calm given how quickly volatility spiked just two weeks ago — and given that the bond market, not the options market, is currently the more stressed corner of Wall Street.
| Zone | VIX Range | Current |
|---|---|---|
| Complacency | Below 15 | ✓ HERE (14.87) |
| Caution | 15–20 | No |
| Elevated Fear | 20–30 | No |
| Systemic Stress | Above 30 | No |
A sub-15 VIX is not a warning level on its own, but complacency this cheap heading into a binary week is worth flagging: an August PCE upside surprise or a soft jobs print could reprice volatility quickly given how far VIX has fallen from its mid-September highs in barely two weeks.
Fear & Greed Index — Sentiment Read
CNN’s Fear & Greed Index read 37 (Fear) as of September 25, only modestly improved from 30 (Fear) a week earlier despite the S&P 500’s best week in three and its approach toward a new all-time high. That gap — a rallying, near-record index paired with a composite sentiment score still stuck in Fear — is the story this week. Unlike a simple risk-on/risk-off read, the sub-indices are genuinely split: volatility and safe-haven positioning have turned Greed-leaning as VIX fell and stocks kept outrunning bonds, while breadth, price strength, options hedging, and credit demand all still register Fear, pointing to a rally that remains narrower and more nervous than the headline index suggests.
| Sub-Index | Signal | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| Market Momentum | Neutral | SPY back above its 125-day average, but choppy week-to-week swings persist |
| Stock Price Strength | Fear | Fewer stocks making fresh 52-week highs even as the cap-weighted index nears its ATH |
| Stock Price Breadth | Fear | Decliners have outpaced advancers on several sessions despite the index-level gain |
| Put/Call Options | Fear | Hedging demand still elevated, a holdover from the mid-September Iran-war scare |
| Junk Bond Demand | Fear | High-yield credit spreads remain wide amid the broader Treasury-market selloff |
| Market Volatility | Greed | VIX fell to a multi-week low of 14.87, back in the Complacency zone |
| Safe Haven Demand | Greed | Stocks have outrun Treasuries as bond yields spike to a 19-year high |
Five of seven sub-indices leaning either clearly Fear or clearly Greed — with almost no true Neutral readings — is itself a signal: this is not a calm, one-directional market. It's a rally built on narrowing leadership (mega-cap concentration masking softer breadth) funded partly by money leaving bonds rather than genuine risk-appetite. That combination can persist for a while, but it is fragile to any data surprise that makes bonds look attractive again.
Risk Matrix
| Risk Factor | Probability | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| 10-year Treasury yield holds above 5% or pushes higher | High | High |
| August PCE (Wed Sep 30) surprises hot, reviving hawkish Fed bets | Medium | High |
| Iran war reignites, oil back above $100/bbl | Medium | High |
| Recession within 12 months (Polymarket: ~14%, down from ~33% mid-Sept) | ~14% | High |
| AI/mega-cap concentration re-rating (top 10 stocks ~40% of index) | Medium | High |
| Micron or Nike earnings disappoint against stretched AI-capex/consumer expectations | Medium | Medium |
| Government shutdown at Oct 1 FY deadline | Low (~1–2%) | Low |
Directional Thesis
Bias: Bullish, but tactically cautious into a binary week. Trust the uptrend; respect the bond market.
- The trend has reasserted itself. SPY is back above its 50-day SMA (~$764) with the golden cross intact, RSI has recovered into the upper-50s, and the index is within 0.7% of a new all-time high. This is the strongest technical picture since before the mid-September Iran-war shock.
- The rally is real but narrow. Five of seven Fear & Greed sub-indices are still Fear-leaning even as the headline index rallies, with breadth and price strength lagging the cap-weighted advance. A rally led by a shrinking group of mega-caps is more vulnerable to a single earnings miss (Micron, Nike) than a broad-based advance would be.
- The real risk isn’t equity volatility — it’s the bond market. A 10-year yield at 5.17%, its highest since 2007, raises the discount rate on every future cash flow equities are priced against. VIX at 14.87 says stocks aren’t worried yet; that gap between calm equity vol and a genuinely stressed bond market is the single largest source of tail risk into year-end.
- Five trading days carry three separate binary catalysts. August PCE (Wed) is the last major inflation print before the Fed’s next meeting; Micron (Wed) and Nike (Thu) are read-throughs on AI-capex demand and consumer spending respectively; and the September jobs report (Fri) will shape whether the Fed's one-more-hike dot plot holds. Any one of the three could move the tape more than the past two weeks combined.
| Scenario | Trigger | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Bull Confirms | PCE in-line or soft; Micron/Nike beat; jobs report near consensus; 10-year yield eases back under 5% | Add on any pullback toward $764 (50-day SMA); target a new ATH above $777.88 |
| Neutral / Wait | Mixed data; 10-year yield holds 5.0%–5.25%; earnings in-line | Hold current allocation through Friday's jobs report before adding fresh risk |
| Bear Confirms | Hot PCE print, weak jobs report (stagflation read), or 10-year yield breaks above 5.25% | Trim into strength now; re-entry zone near the 200-day SMA (~$726) |
The specific positioning call: stay long through this week's data rather than de-risking ahead of it — the technical trend, the golden cross, and the proximity to a new all-time high all argue for staying invested. But size new adds modestly and keep a plan for the bond-market risk specifically: a 10-year yield that breaks meaningfully above 5.25% is a bigger threat to this rally than any single earnings miss, and is the one signal in this entire review worth pre-committing to act on rather than waiting to see how equities react first.
Wall Street Consensus
The S&P 500 closed at 7,743.41 on September 25 — within 3.3% of the 8,000 year-end targets from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley, and inside the range of nearly every major bank's forecast. HSBC lifted its target twice this quarter, most recently to 8,100 from 7,650, citing first-half EPS growth near 40% and expecting more than 25% growth in the back half. Bank of America, long the board's most bearish holdout, raised its own target to 7,400 from 7,100 on September 18 — still the low end of the table, but a meaningful concession that its "too many red flags" case has softened as earnings have outperformed.
| Firm | S&P 500 Target | SPY Equivalent | Implied Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| RBC (Lori Calvasina) | 8,150 | ~$815 | +5.3% |
| Yardeni Research | 8,250 | ~$825 | +6.5% |
| Citigroup | 8,100 | ~$810 | +4.6% |
| HSBC | 8,100 | ~$810 | +4.6% |
| CNBC Strategist Survey (median) | 8,000 | ~$800 | +3.3% |
| Goldman Sachs | 8,000 | ~$800 | +3.3% |
| JPMorgan | 8,000 | ~$800 | +3.3% |
| Morgan Stanley | ~8,000 | ~$800 | +3.3% |
| Bank of America | 7,400 | ~$740 | −4.4% |
The consensus has converged meaningfully this year: the spread between the median (8,000) and the average (7,911) is now narrow, and even Bank of America's revised 7,400 implies only a modest pullback rather than a bear case. The open question every firm keeps coming back to is whether earnings growth — still running near multi-year highs, powered by AI capex — can keep outrunning a bond market that is now pricing meaningfully higher long-term rates than it was even a month ago.
Week Ahead Calendar
This week layers the last major inflation print before the Fed's next meeting on top of two of the most closely watched earnings reports of the quarter and the September jobs report — a genuine make-or-break stretch for whether this rally has real legs.
| Date | Time (ET) | Event | Prior | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon Sep 28 | 10:30 AM | Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index (Sep) | — | Regional read ahead of Thursday's national ISM print |
| Tue Sep 29 | Before Open | Carnival (CCL) Q3 FY26 Earnings | — | ~$1.35 EPS / ~$8.39B revenue; consumer/travel spending read |
| Tue Sep 29 | 10:00 AM | Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Sep) | — | — |
| Wed Sep 30 | 8:30 AM | PCE Price Index (Aug) — Fed's preferred inflation gauge | Core 3.3% y/y, Headline 3.7% y/y (Jul) | Core +0.3% m/m, Headline +0.4% m/m |
| Wed Sep 30 | 8:15 AM | ADP National Employment Report (Sep) | +38K (Aug) | Watched ahead of Friday's official payrolls |
| Wed Sep 30 | After Close | Micron Technology (MU) Q4 FY26 Earnings | — | ~$31.45 EPS / ~$50.8B revenue; the week's most consequential print on AI-memory demand |
| Thu Oct 1 | 8:30 AM | Initial Jobless Claims | — | — |
| Thu Oct 1 | 10:00 AM | ISM Manufacturing PMI (Sep) & JOLTS Job Openings (Aug) | ISM 55.2 / JOLTS ~7.33M (Aug) | ISM ~54–55 |
| Thu Oct 1 | Before Open | McCormick & Co. (MKC) Q3 FY26 Earnings | — | ~$0.76 EPS / ~$1.98B revenue |
| Thu Oct 1 | After Close | Nike (NKE) Q1 FY27 Earnings | — | ~$0.44 EPS / ~$11.33B revenue; consumer-discretionary read |
| Fri Oct 2 | 8:30 AM | September Nonfarm Payrolls & Unemployment Rate | +162K, 4.1% (Aug) | Consensus roughly 50K–100K; last major labor read before the Fed's Oct 27–28 meeting |
Note: the October 1 ISM/JOLTS window and Nike/McCormick earnings land on the same day this cycle, front-loading Thursday with both a hard economic data point and two consumer-facing earnings reports. Friday's payrolls print is the week's capstone and the last significant labor-market data the Fed will see before its October 27–28 meeting, where markets currently price a strong chance of another hike.
Sources
- ChartMill — SPY technical rating, support/resistance zones
- TipRanks — SPY RSI, moving averages, buy/sell signals
- AltIndex — SPY RSI, MACD, moving averages
- CNN Fear & Greed Index — current score and sub-indicators
- Yahoo Finance — VIX level and history
- Yahoo Finance — SPY historical closing prices
- CNBC — Week-ahead outlook, Sept 28–Oct 2
- Invezz — 10-year Treasury yield at 5.17%, bond selloff
- CNN Business — 10-year Treasury yield hits 5%, market implications
- FX Leaders — Brent crude drops below $100 on U.S.-Iran talks
- Polymarket — U.S. recession by end of 2026, prediction odds
- U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis — Q2 2026 GDP, second estimate
- CNBC — July 2026 PCE inflation data
- CNBC — August 2026 jobs report, unemployment rate
- CNBC — September 16 FOMC rate decision and dot plot
- StockMarketHours — August 2026 PCE release date and forecast
- TradingKey — Week-ahead preview: PCE, payrolls, Micron earnings
- Benzinga — Micron, Carnival, Nike earnings dates and estimates
- Yahoo Finance — HSBC raises S&P 500 target to 8,100
- Yahoo Finance — Bank of America raises S&P 500 target to 7,400