LELOUCH · MYRG

MYRG: Record Backlog, Broken Chart

MYR Group trades at $331.67 as of 9:52 AM HST on August 11, 2026 — 34% below its 52-week high of $503.57 and nearly 20% under its 50-day average. That drawdown happened after the best quarter in the company's history: record revenue of $1.08B, EPS of $3.17 against a $2.64 estimate, and a record $3.16B backlog. Nothing broke operationally. What broke was the multiple. The question is whether a well-run contractor at roughly 31x trailing earnings is now priced closer to reasonable, or merely less absurd.

The Business

MYR Group (NASDAQ: MYRG) is an electrical construction contractor operating in two segments. Transmission & Distribution builds high-voltage lines, substations, and distribution networks for utilities. Commercial & Industrial handles electrical work inside data centers, transportation projects, healthcare facilities, and industrial plants. Plainly: they build the grid and the electrical guts of large buildings.

That places MYRG directly in the path of three multi-year tailwinds — grid hardening and replacement, broad electrification, and the data-center power buildout. It also makes it a labor-and-execution business rather than a product business. There is no pricing power moat here; contractors win on bidding discipline, project execution, and not detonating fixed-price jobs. Net margins run near 4%. The edge is operational, and MYRG has historically had it.

Where the Price Is

  • Price: $331.67 (+$1.36, +0.41%) · regular hours, as of 9:52 AM HST, Aug 11, 2026
  • Previous close: $330.31 · Day range: $327.86–$341.30
  • 52-week range: $171.51–$503.57 — currently 34.1% below the high, 93% above the low
  • 50-day MA: $413.12 — price is 19.7% below it
  • 200-day MA: $315.35 — price is 5.2% above it
  • RSI(14): 33.0 — near oversold, not yet turning
  • Market cap: ~$5.14B on ~$4.01B LTM revenue (~1.3x sales)

The technical picture is unambiguous: this is a momentum unwind in progress. The stock lost roughly 28% over thirty days, sliced through its 50-day average, and is now resting just above its 200-day. RSI at 33 says sellers are tiring, but a falling RSI is not a buy signal — it is a stopwatch that hasn't rung yet.

What Q2 Actually Said

The operating results were not the problem. For Q2 2026:

  • Revenue: $1.08B, up 20.1% year over year, beating consensus of $995.5M by ~8.8%
  • EPS: $3.17 versus a $2.64 estimate — a 20.1% beat
  • Backlog: record $3.16B, up 19.6% from $2.64B a year earlier (T&D $1.27B, C&I $1.89B)
  • Acquisitions: Valley Electric and Comet Electric, together adding more than $400M in annual revenue

Management guided C&I operating margins to the midpoint of a 6–9% range and T&D margins to the midpoint of 8–11% for the remainder of the year, with Valley contributing roughly $250M and organic growth running 13–15%. That is a company executing, not stumbling.

So Why Is It Down 34%?

Three reasons, in order of how much they matter.

The multiple got ahead of the business. MYRG ran from $171 to $503 in under a year — a 194% move on a company growing revenue around 20%. At the highs, bearish coverage pegged the forward multiple near 41x, which requires the grid and AI-data-center cycles to keep accelerating indefinitely. That is not a fundamentals problem; it is a valuation problem, and the market is correcting it directly.

Integration risk is now real. Two acquisitions inside one year adds over $400M of revenue at unproven margins. Contractors lose money on integration more often than on demand.

Mix and cost pressure. Softer solar and renewables contribution, labor cost inflation in a tight skilled-trades market, lumpy C&I backlog conversion, and rising SG&A and capex all compress the path from record backlog to record earnings.

The Thesis

Bull case: you are buying a disciplined contractor with a record backlog, net-cash balance sheet, and structural demand, at roughly 31x trailing earnings — down from a multiple that was genuinely indefensible. Analyst consensus sits at $423 (high $564, low $295), implying about 28% upside, and coverage remains 3 buys, 0 sells. If the backlog converts at guided margins, earnings grow into the multiple rather than the multiple compressing further.

Bear case: a 4%-net-margin contractor should not carry a 31x multiple in the first place. Strip the AI-grid narrative and this is a cyclical business with execution risk and no pricing power. The 200-day average at $315 is the last technical floor before the March-to-May breakout zone near $280 comes into play.

What would change my mind: a backlog decline, a C&I margin print below the 6% floor, or evidence that the Valley/Comet integration is diluting margins. Any of those turns this from a valuation reset into a thesis break.

Trade Plan

Setup: reset/dip-buy in a quality name mid-unwind. This is not a breakout trade and should not be treated as one. Momentum is still down; the plan is to buy confirmation, not to catch the knife.

Entry triggers — wait for one of these, do not anticipate:

  • RSI turn: RSI(14) currently 33.0 — a curl back above 40–45 signals the momentum break has exhausted. This is the earliest credible signal.
  • Hold of the 200-day: price holding $315.35 on a retest, with a reversal candle and next-day follow-through, is the cleanest structural entry.
  • Higher low above $315: a higher low printed above the 200-day repairs trend structure.
  • Confirmation add: a daily close back above $413 (the 50-day) on above-average volume — that reclaims the trend and is the signal to size up, not to start.

Staged entry: starter position on the RSI turn or a successful 200-day retest; add on the 50-day reclaim. Do not commit full size on one print in a name that just fell 28% in a month.

Stop / invalidation: a decisive daily close below $315 (200-day) on elevated volume. Below that, the next real support is the $280 breakout zone, and the technical thesis is void.

Targets / trim: first trim into $380–$413 (prior congestion and the 50-day); second into $423 (analyst consensus); leave a runner only if backlog and margins keep printing.

Hold horizon: months to quarters. This is a thesis trade on grid capex, not a swing.

Position size note: high-beta, high-multiple, mid-unwind. Size accordingly — a name that moved 194% up and 34% down inside a year will not respect a tight stop.

Bottom Line

MYRG is a good business whose stock got priced for a perfect decade and is now being repriced for a merely good one. The operating results say buy; the chart says wait. Both can be true, and the resolution is patience: let RSI turn or the 200-day hold, then act. Paying up for a falling 50-day average in a 4%-margin contractor is how quality names become expensive lessons.

Price and technical data pulled live from Yahoo Finance at 9:52 AM HST on August 11, 2026. Fundamentals from Q2 2026 reported results. Levels are point-in-time and will move.