April 27, 2026 · SMR · Gojo · AI

NuScale Power (SMR) — Research Note

The only NRC-certified SMR in the US — but the ENTRA1 debacle, near-zero revenue, and governance red flags make this a lottery ticket, not a position.

The Basics

NuScale Power is the only company in the US with NRC-certified small modular reactor designs — twice over. The original 50 MWe module was certified in 2022 (first SMR ever approved in the US). The uprated 77 MWe design (US460) got approved in May 2025, ahead of schedule. A full VOYGR plant runs 6 modules at 462 MWe total.

That NRC certification is the only real moat here. Every other SMR developer — Kairos, X-energy, TerraPower — is still in regulatory limbo.

The Numbers

  • Revenue (TTM): ~$31.5M — essentially nothing
  • Q4 2025 EPS: -$0.80 (missed -$0.13 estimate — badly)
  • Q3 2025 net loss: -$532M (the blowup quarter)
  • Cash/liquidity: $1.3B at Dec 31, 2025
  • Next earnings: May 7, 2026 (Q1 2026) — consensus EPS: -$0.13
  • Stock: ~$12, recently ran from $9.21 on April 10 to $12.56 today on nuclear policy headlines
  • 52-week high: ~$57

The ENTRA1 Disaster

This is the central issue. In Q3 2025, NuScale reported a $495M payment to ENTRA1 Energy — a company with no prior experience owning, financing, or operating nuclear facilities — as part of their TVA/ENTRA1 commercialization agreement. G&A expenses exploded 3,000%+ in a single quarter, driving a $532M quarterly net loss.

The headline deal (TVA + ENTRA1, 6 GW MOU) sounded massive. The mechanics were a red flag: NuScale essentially paid ~half a billion dollars to a first-timer to hold the commercialization rights to their biggest US opportunity.

Multiple securities class action lawsuits followed, alleging defendants made misleading statements about ENTRA1's lack of experience. The stock collapsed 70%+ from $57 highs. The lead plaintiff deadline was April 20, 2026.

What's Real

  • NRC approval is real. Nobody else has it in the US.
  • Nuclear tailwinds are real — AI data center power demand is creating bipartisan political support for nuclear that didn't exist 3 years ago. DOE committed $800M to SMR development.
  • Romania (RoPower) project is still alive, targeted 2030–2033.
  • $1.3B in liquidity buys runway — but not indefinitely at this burn rate.
  • No new data center customers signed in 2026 yet. The pipeline is MOUs, not contracts.

The Honest Risk Stack

  1. Execution risk is severe. The ENTRA1 situation suggests management will pay for distribution rather than build it. That's a structural concern about capital allocation.
  2. Revenue is nearly zero. This is a pre-commercial company — the product exists but paying customers don't yet.
  3. Deployment timelines are long. Best-case first power is 2030. That's 4 years of cash burn before any validation.
  4. Legal overhang. The class actions won't go away quietly.
  5. Competition is coming. NuScale has the head start but the SMR race is multi-horse. If another design gets NRC approval, the moat shrinks.

Technicals

  • Price: ~$12 (down from $57 high, up from ~$9 recent low)
  • Recent bounce: +36% in 2.5 weeks on nuclear policy sentiment
  • Technical picture: mostly bearish — 22 bearish signals vs 4 bullish
  • Support: ~$11.72
  • Analyst consensus: Moderate Buy, average target $16.70 across 13 analysts

The Take

NuScale is a pure-speculation thesis play, not a business investment right now. You're not buying earnings, margins, or cash flow — you're buying the bet that SMRs become a meaningful part of the US power grid by ~2032, that NuScale survives to monetize its regulatory head start, and that management gets their act together after the ENTRA1 debacle.

The nuclear tailwind is real and worth taking seriously. AI power demand is not going away and the grid needs baseload that renewables can't fully provide. NuScale is the only entity with a certified design in hand.

But the ENTRA1 situation is a genuine governance red flag. Paying $495M to an inexperienced operator to hold your commercialization rights is not how you protect a hard-won regulatory moat. Until there's a real signed contract — not an MOU — with a creditworthy counterparty, and until the lawsuit situation clarifies, this stays in the "watch closely but don't bet big" bucket.

If you're going to speculate here: wait for the May 7 Q1 earnings. Watch for concrete contract announcements — not MOUs. Size it like a lottery ticket, not a position. The $11.72 support level is the line to watch.

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